Firstly, predictions are made by current trends in gaming, and each company's announced plans for the future. Since it all looks set to be more of the same, we should expect similarly stagnant market shares.
As for casual gamers, they feed companies like Sega and Capcom who proceed to use the funds from Sonic and Resident Evil to make Rez and Killer 7. They feed money to EA, who just use it to buy more licenses for the casual. Ho hum...
Seriously though, casual gamers have their place, just as I have mine as a casual film fan, a casual TV viewer and a semi-casual music fan. Let me put it to you another way: sports fans buy FIFA yearly because they like football. How is that different from gamers here watching Sonic X because they like Sonic, but often not bothering with things like Friends?
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thank god there are still people out there commited to quality as well as profit.
Yup. Unfortunately, those people were never quite so good at that second bit, so there won't be a console from those people next time around. We'll just have to play Sega games on consoles that likely won't even deserve to display the blue and white logo.